Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Financial Avalanche Will Bury Most

Financial writer David Morgan says the global economy is cracking. Things such as shipping, manufacturing, retail and real estate sales are all headed down. Morgan contends, “What you are starting to see is those little rumblings that happen before the big tremor. That’s an analogy, but that’s what we are starting to see. . . . Nothing is more important than the debt markets and what is going to happen in the future.”

Morgan thought a financial crash would occur last fall. We may not have gotten a total crash, but Morgan says it has certainly started and charges, “Mathematically, it is a certainty. Secondly, the biggest knowledge from monetary history is that no fiat currency can go on indefinitely. They have all failed—100%. So, will the dollar continue indefinitely—it won’t. The hard part is saying when, but it will take place. The analogy on that is sort of like an avalanche. When it starts, it actually starts to move rather slowly, but it is a mass, mass times velocity. So, what happens is it starts kind of slow, so slow you might not even notice it. Then it starts picking up speed and picking up speed, and then bang, it goes from slowly to quickly. Most crashes are taking place. It is taking place, but what people don’t notice is it is moving or moving against them. It’s going to hurt them, and they aren’t aware of it until it is too late. Once it picks up speed, and it picks up speed so rapidly thatbefore you know it, they are buried. I think that is a good analogy for where we are now. . . . I think the avalanche started in September.”

Morgan says the Fed is on the back side of the power curve. What does he mean by that? Morgan explains, “Things are really at a standstill. This is really the biggest fear the Federal Reserve has. It’s called pushing on a string. If you push on a string, nothing happens. They have tried forever to stimulate the economy by increasing the debts, by increasing credit. The credit has all gone to the banks. Having an aeronautical background and flying for many years, it’s called the backside of the power curve. It means no matter what airplane you are in, when you get to a certain point and stall out, no matter how much power you give it, you are going to stall and you are going to fall. You are either going to have enough altitude to recover or you are going to crash into the ground. This is a perfect analogy for where we are now . . . I am not sure we have enough to recover this time. The Fed has been printing and printing and printing, which is the equivalent of pushing the pedal to the metal . . . and we haven’t got out of this mess, and you know it and I know it.”